The Directed Telescope

I recently had a one-to-one dinner with an ex-General from the Indonesian military at his residence in the outskirts of Jakarta. We had not met for many years and we caught up on things military - the people we knew, the things we did (or were now doing), and the experience we had when we were much younger. Such conversations always remind me that there is a certain familiarity and comfort between men in uniform. Inevitably, the conversation turned to domestic politics. He faulted SBY for being indecisive and reluctant to take the tough decisions required to move the country forward. SBY was isolated from reality. He had surrounded himself with trusted aides who filtered stuff out so that the information that reached him was only a poor reflection of reality. It was also crucial how the boss reacted to news. If the leadership showed that only good news was appreciated, good news would be reported and amplified, while bad news deliberately nuanced. Indonesians even have a term expressing the importance of pleasing the boss - asal bapak senang. The General said that that was why good commanders therefore understood the need to walk the ground, visit units, and talk directly to soldiers to form an independent view of what was happening. In addition, a good commander needed to have other independent sources of information functioning outside the chain of command - either an independent intelligence outfit or trusted officers or agents at the front line to get a reliable picture of what was happening. [Martin van Creveld in his masterpiece "Command in War", termed this independent source of information as a "directed telescope".] Without clarity of the situation, it was impossible for a leader to lead.

I recall that the Megawati Presidency was subject to this same criticism. More recent events in the Middle East - the overthrow of Gaddafi, Mubarak, Ben Ali and perhaps in a few months Assad - show that many entrenched leaders, having been in office for a long time, may have lost the appreciation that multiple sources of information, and both good and bad news are critical in understanding the complete situation. To lead complex organisations, including countries, a leader needs multiple independent sources of information so that an accurate picture can be painted. In short, a leader must desire a diversity of primary sources of information and views. If the leadership chooses instead to rely on a small group of "trusted" people for information and analysis and regard every one else as "disloyal" - and when the learned behaviour from the past is for these sources to repeat to the leader how the current policies are working - it is very likely that the entire leadership is heading down a road that will lead to regret.