A Strong Government for Indonesia in 2009?

In a recent conversation with Giang, a western educated lady I met in Vietnam, she told me that she preferred a strong single party government to a multi party democracy for Vietnam at this stage of her development. Vietnam was a poor country and needed stability to grow. She reasoned that a strong government ensured that there was good leadership, consistent direction and clear policies, things that guaranteed that things got done. This was what Vietnam had, and this was why there was clear progress all around Vietnam. Why compromise with the messiness democracy brings? While Giang’s conclusion is not entirely accurate - I did not have the heart to point out the example of Myanmar, or many other African states - many people understand her point.

Take Indonesia and its free flowing democracy. 38 parties took part in its third free election since the fall of Suharto. The result is likely once again to be a fragmented parliament. Like in Italy, Israel or India, Indonesian political parties have to build coalitions to govern. In smoke filled rooms, parties negotiate, haggle and compromise. Once agreement is reached, a cabinet is formed, filled with representatives from the coalition partners. Minor parties in the coalition enjoy influence completely disproportionate to their support. The unwieldy nature of a coalition means that the platform is kept simple, and the government can proceed as quickly as the slowest member wants it too. The system favours inertia. And if the government chooses to do otherwise, the parliament (DPR) stands ready to veto any government initiative or worse, bring the government down.

This was the system designed by the Indonesians. After having endured years of rule by a dictator, the Indonesian system of government today is all about checks and balances. The last thing Indonesia needs is a strong executive right?

Ten years after the fall of Suharto, more and more Indonesians are beginning to revise their answer to the question above. While a strong executive without checks and balances exposes the system to corruption and abuse, a weak government serves to ensure that little gets done in a country that painfully needs a clear agenda for development. Indonesia has tremendous problems, and decisive action needs to be taken to improve the fate of millions of people. Many Indonesians agree with Giang. They want an effective government. SBY has been repeatedly criticized for not being as effective as he could be in his first term. Although he is clearly intelligent, people say that he worries too much about opposition to his policies, is consultative to the point of being tiresome, and is simply not decisive.

But this time, SBY has responded with renewed confidence. The Indonesian people have voted for SBY with a much stronger mandate. Partai Demokrat captured 20% of the vote - up from just 7% - and SBY is by a mile, the front runner in the polls for the Presidential contest. There is a distinct possibility that there will not be a second round as SBY may capture over 50% of the vote in the first round no matter who stands against him.

Even before the results are out, instead of pleading to Golkar for support, he dictated terms to the party. So much so that Jusuf Kalla, its leader, decided that he stood a better chance of remaining at least as a Vice President if he joined the opposition coalition. PKS, the Islamic based party, has been a lot more accommodating. With 8% of the popular vote, they are still viewed suspiciously by many because of their Islamic agenda. They know that they need time in government to grow in legitimacy. Joining SBY is the best route. PAN and PKB also looks set to join the SBY coalition.

The challengers to SBY make unlikely bedfellows. PDI-P and Golkar have put both Megawati and Jusuf Kalla as their Presidential candidates respectively. The coalition cannot support more than one Presidential candidate, and it is hard to see either of them yielding to the other. Prabowo and Wiranto, the leaders of Gerindra and Hanura respectively, were sworn enemies. Political expediency has brought them together. All four parties do not share an ideology or a common platform. The only thing that unites them is the goal of stopping SBY from being the first Indonesian President to win re-election in a free vote. They may yet split.

So what is the chance of Indonesia having a strong government this round? This is the best chance yet under a free vote. SBY will win the Presidential vote at a canter. If he structured a rainbow coalition, it would be based on compromise again. So, he is trying to change the status quo and is getting parties to join him under his terms. If SBY is not able to translate his popularity into executive strength this round, it will be years before anybody else can.

Its time for Indonesia to stop drifting and have an effective government. Otherwise the Vietnams of this world, which are still behind Indonesia in the GDP per capita rankings, will overtake it and leave it far behind.